State Elections May Bring Changes in Party Control
The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL)
released an analysis that identified 10 states – Colorado, Georgia,
Indiana, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Vermont, and
Washington – as battlegrounds where political control of their
legislative chambers could change in the November election. NCSL is a
bipartisan organization that provides state legislators and staffs with
research, technical assistance, and opportunities to exchange policy ideas.
NCSL’s analysis noted that, with nearly 80% of
the 7,382 seats in state legislatures up for grabs in the election and
Republicans having steadily made gains since the early 1980s, the GOP could
be poised to secure a clear balance of power. In 2002, Republicans gained
the advantage in state legislative seats, topping Democrats for the first
time since 1952. At present, Republicans hold a majority in 21 state
legislatures, Democrats control 17, and 11 are split, with a different
party controlling each chamber. Tim Storey, an NCSL senior
fellow, summed up the situation at a news conference saying, “The big
question for 2004 is this: Will the Democrats reverse a trend that has seen
seats drop away for 30 years or will the GOP solidify its status as the
majority party in legislatures?”
All but six states – Alabama, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia – will hold
legislative elections this year. A shift of only three seats could alter
party control in 25 legislative chambers. Of course, the presidential
election also might affect the outcome of state legislative races.
The 10 states identified by NCSL as legislative battlegrounds are as follows:
- Colorado Senate – Democrats need just one seat to take power
from the Republican party.
- Georgia House of Representatives – A new redistricting plan
gives Republicans the chance to make gains.
- Indiana House of Representatives – Democrats hold a one-seat
advantage in a chamber that has gone back and forth in recent years.
- Maine Senate – Only one seat separates the parties. The
state is expected to be a presidential battleground.
- Montana House of Representatives – A new redistricting plan
gives Democrats a chance to gain control.
- North Carolina House of Representatives – Following the 2002
election, a party switch left the chamber tied.
- Oklahoma House of Representatives – Republicans have had
steady gains in recent elections and need only three seats to take control.
- Oregon Senate – Tied 15 to 15. Both parties are determined
to take control.
- Vermont House of Representatives – With more third-party
members than any other state, a coalition leadership is a possibility.
- Washington Senate and House of Representatives – The most
competitive legislature in the past decade. Both chambers are toss ups.
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